President of Georgia awaiting instructions from the North, the West and ... from above?

The Georgian Central Electoral Commission made parliament election results official yesterday, in the capital where protests have been a daily routine for 19 days. President Eduard Shevardnaze has called a meeting with the newly-elected Parliament tomorrow.

If you've followed the news since the November 2 election, you know that voters and international observers have grave questions over whether the elections were fairly conducted. There is considerable evidence that votes were manipulated in favor of a Shevradnaze-friendly bloc.

Mass rallies are being held not only in Georgia's capital, Tbilisi, but also in a number of provincial cities. A few days ago in Bolnisi the first clash between Shevardnadze's and opposition supporters took place. Ten people were hospitalized.

The tenuous situation hardly provides any confidence that the new parliament will be able to conduct its first session in a concord with the voters.

Opposition parties have already announced their intentions to boycott parliament and one of Shevardnadze's most radical opponents is calling for the president to resign.

In Caucasus politics, that's not so unusual. But it is significant in Georgia that the boycott and calls for resignation are being led by men who used to be part of Shevardnadze's team. Mikhail Saakashvili, for example, who is calling for the president's resignation is a former Minister of Justice

The 75-year old veteran politician Shevardnadze, once a key figure in Mikhail Gorbachev's Soviet Union (Foreign Minister), is now facing a dilemma: to keep a democratic image that has earned international respect, or to use force to hold onto power and prevent civil war.

In a speech last Friday, Shevardnadze recalled similar troubled days in the early 1990s, which were costly to his republic.

"Do you remember two waves of the civil war? Shattered and ruined Tbilisi, ruined, bombed parliament building… We have passed these stages. Add to this bloody conflicts which could have been avoided, it was absolutely possible to avoid them, especially the Georgian-Ossetian conflict. Today, Georgia's breakaway republic of Abkhazia is not yet returned and the situation remains the same in the South Ossetian capital Tskhinvali. So, do we have the right to allow the situation to grow into a civil confrontation again?"

The old leader is not hiding. From the beginning of protests he talked about dialog with the opposition. He went to Rustaveli Avenue when it was full of aggression and anger but still, did not lose hope for compromise.

Being a former diplomat he was trying these days to be diplomatic and even nice. But the moment came and he was not able to hide his emotions, which spilled over into the message of his November 14 speech.

The president also praised his friendly relationship with the US administration and disclosed the reasons of cooperation with Russia, which is partially dictated by the current state of Georgia's economy, particularly its energy sector.

"We have done everything to maintain exceptional relations with the United States. This nation, this country and its presidents have done everything to help Georgia to become an independent state and democratic country. We have maintained these relations and we will maintain them in the future. However, relations with Russia are necessary for Georgia. We no longer have natural gas here… Natural gas from Azerbaijan will be available in one year and a half, or maybe in two years' time. After that, great prospects are visible. But in this situation what were we supposed to do? We applied to Russia again, and I have to tell you that President Vladimir Putin supported us."

Young demonstrators are not willing to compromise.

Shevardnadze seems intent on justifying his renewed contacts with Russian president Vladimir Putin.

Whether his international relations will suffer will be seen, but it appears that Shevardnadze's stature has been diminished by an election that, like those in neighboring Armenia and Azerbaijan, was flawed to the point of discrediting the country.

Nearer to home, how might the soured elections and subsequent fallout affect relations in the Caucasus?

During the last 10 days Aslan Abashidze, "Adjarian Leo" - the iron-fisted leader of Adjaria and markedly pro-Russia -- served as an emissary for Shevardnadze, touring neighboring Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia to drum up support.

During his visit here, Abashidze held private conversations with President Robert Kocharyan. There were also phone calls between Kocharyan and Shevardnadze.

Of course the details of those conversations have not been made known to the public. But one thing is obvious: Yerevan is concerned with the explosive situation in Georgia, one considered as dangerous for all the region. At the same time authorities announced that Armenia is not going to interfere in Georgia's internal affairs and expressed hope that the situation there will improve soon.

New Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliev must be at least concerned for the Baku -Tbilisi -Jeykhan oil pipeline. Both Kocharyan and Aliev have other reasons for concern: the fate of their compatriots living in Georgia.

There are 248,929 Armenians in Georgia (and an almost identical number of Azeris). Certainly, Shevardnadze's "special envoy" was talking with the Armenian president to ensure the Geogrian-Armenians loyalty to the Georgian administration.

Armenians in Georgia have a mostly peaceful but not cozy relationship with Georgians and some have accused the Armenians there of provoking the political crisis. One candidate from the pro-governmental New Georgia party even said that Armenians are trying to benefit from the instability and push investors to change the route of the oil pipeline so that it will pass through Armenia. Indeed, the level of suspicion in Georgia these days is high.

The Embassy of Armenia in Tbilisi was forced to make comments and one more time reassure that the Republic of Armenia will not make steps that may harm the Georgian state, or be interpreted as interference in its internal affairs. A press release put out by the embassy also said that: "Official Yerevan considers speculations about the ethnic Armenian community in Georgia, which is sincerely interested in the integrity and prosperity of its country, to be unacceptable."

Meanwhile, politicians in Armenia are following developments in Georgia closely. A consistent conclusion among them is that the opposition in Georgia is stronger than the opposition in Armenia.

"We were not able to keep people in the streets even for a week (for political demonstrations)," one politician said. "But look what the Georgians are doing."

How this extreme struggle of the Georgian opposition will effect the country is another question. The paradox of the situation is that Shevardnadze desperately waits instructions from superpowers, but neither the United States nor Russia is willing (at least till now) to mediate this crisis.

Another paradox is that Shevardnadze, known as "the Caucasus Fox" does not have trustworthy people in his administration and it is likely that he already struck a deal for transfer of power to the Adjarian Muslim leader. Sooner or later that leader is likely to ask for payback.

But for now the main problem is to find a common language among compatriots.

"Even with the Chechens, with those rebels, we managed to find a common language," said Shevardnadze. "If we and the Chechens could understand each other, why cannot Georgians understand each other?"