Court hearings resumed today in the static-laced
legal conversation between the poorly-served telephone
clients of Armenia, the Government of the Republic
and the owners of the string-in-tin-can outfit
that passes for phone service here.
Unless our Internet connection - also brought
to us by the string and can deal - is too slow
to get this story to you, here's a look back at
how this day was reached . . .
Rewind to 1997, when Greek telecommunications
company OTE paid $80 million to the Armenian government,
and $62.5 million to a remarkably well-connected
American company called Trans World Telecom. For
their investment, the Greeks got a 90 percent
stake in ArmenTel, the country's monopolist telecommunications
provider. As part of the deal, OTE agreed to invest
$300 million in Armenian telecoms sector by 2008,
two-thirds of which was to be spent by 2003, and
to expand mobile phone coverage to all of the
territory of Armenia by the end of 2004.
(Trans World Telecom - which is now focused on
the Caribbean telecommunications network, according
to the company's web site - acquired its stake
in ArmenTel in July 1995. The noise that followed
hasn't exactly been so clear you could hear a
pin drop, but it included allegations by government
opposition leaders of big bribes in high places.
A presidential commission established in March
1999 dialed into the controversy, but got no clear
answer. A few months later, Armenia's Ministry
of State Revenue sued TWT and OTE in an effort
to collect what it claimed was unpaid profit tax
of more than $18 million, including fines and
penalties of more than $10 million, stemming from
the sale of ArmenTel.)
Routine corruption aside, the real crime of the
sale of ArmenTel was the decision to allow the
company to remain the monopoly provider of all
telecommunications services through 2013. A three-minute
analysis of the global history of the privatization
of state assets would have found a crucially overlooked
matter. Specifically, when monopoly rights are
transferred to a new owner, the problems stemming
from the lack of competition that plagued the
asset in the first place are transferred as well:
Little incentive to invest or improve service,
and every incentive to asset-strip and maximize
short-term profitability. (A mea culpa last summer
by Vahram Avanesyan, at the time a cabinet minister
involved in the sale, acknowledged as much: "We
signed the agreement on our own, without [consulting
with] specialists and professionals," he
said, according to Radio Free Europe. "We
realized very soon that we were very, very wrong.")
The predictable result has been terrible service,
nosebleed tariff levels, dismal line quality,
and Internet connectivity as slow as snowcaps
moving off Ararat.
Under heavy public pressure, the Armenian government
is trying to move the goalposts of its deal with
OTE. In September the government announced its
intention to unilaterally revoke ArmenTel's exclusive
rights to Internet and cellphone services, in
part contending that OTE was abusing its monopoly
position. The government further contends that
OTE had not met its contractual obligations to
develop telephony services in Armenia - a claim
that OTE vociferously denies. Seeing the writing
on the wall (and certainly not hearing the news
via clear electronic communication) and focused
on extracting as much cash from ArmenTel as possible,
in October OTE decided to double the per-minute
fee for local phone calls, and reduce the minute
threshold before which users are charged for each
minute of telephone usage. The price hike contradicted
a government pledge to keep prices stable and
has led to these hearings. As another part of
its offensive, in December OTE responded to the
government's efforts to revoke its monopoly status
by filing a countersuit against the Armenian government
in the International Court of Economic Arbitration,
for breach of contract.
OTE has been trying to extract itself from its
Armenian nightmare for nearly two years, but -
not surprisingly - has had no takers. Early rumors
that the Greek company was in talks with Turkey's
Turk Telecom proved to be unfounded, and Russia's
hidebound fixed-line telecommunications operator
Rostelecom is the most likely buyer of the political
pain in the morass that is ArmenTel.
Perhaps worse than lousy phone lines, by fumbling
the sale of ArmenTel Armenia squandered the opportunity
to develop a competitive advantage in information
technology and software development - one of the
few businesses in which being blockaded by two
of your neighbors needn't matter so much. A recent
article in McKinsey Quarterly [http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/article_abstract.asp?ar=1391&L2=4&L3=42
- abstract only without subscription; registration
necessary to view abstract] suggests that the
IT and software development sectors in Armenia
have benefited from three critical competitive
advantages: Armenia's well-educated workforce;
low wages; and the Armenian Diaspora, which is
in a position to provide funding and management
to business efforts. To expand the industry beyond
the two percent of GDP that is presently accounted
for by IT and software companies, and build upon
the country's competitive advantages, the authors
suggest that education in the sector should be
strengthened and expanded, and that the government
and private sectors should cooperate to attract
investment into the sector.
But the missing and (strangely) overlooked ingredient
- a necessary but not sufficient condition for
any sustained, successful investment in information
technology - is a telecommunications infrastructure
that works. Henry Ford wouldn't have gotten very
far, literally and proverbially, if roads hadn't
existed when he made the first automobile. And
Armenia's IT and software industries will similarly
stall as long as they remain engaged in a network
search.
Kim Iskyan is a freelance journalist and consultant
based in Yerevan. He frequently provides comment
and analysis on post-Soviet issues. His work has
appeared in the Moscow Times, Wall Street Journal,
International Herald Tribune and other publications.
|